Gambling and pokar

I'm running bad, "is a phrase you will often hear poker players use to describe periods of bad luck or variance. In poker sometimes it just feels as if the cards are conspiring against you and that you can't win a hand. These periods can go on for weeks, or even months resulting in your bankroll taking a nosedive.

Such periods are often referred to as variance or "poker downswings" and every player, from the micro-stake grinder to the WSOP Main Event Champion, will go through them.The human mind is a little bit pessimistic and seems to notice bad luck far more than it notices good luck. If you are holding a pair of aces and get all your money in the middle before the flop, you expect to win. After all, you are an 80% favorite. When you do win you will not consider yourself lucky, but rather put it down to the skillful way you played your pocket rockets.

But the truth is that you escaped the 20% chance to lose the pot. Your opponent still had a chance to beat you, but didn't. So you got lucky. But I am your memory is far clearer on the times your aces were cracked, rather than the times they stood up.
You need to play a lot of hands before you can get a clear view of your poker playing skill and allow the odds and percentages time to even out. How many hands? Well most poker players would tell you at least 100,000 and preferably more. The first chapter in Charley Swayne's book Advanced Degree in Hold'em suggests playing 250,000 hands before you even begin to play for cash just to get a "little" experience under your belt.

The more you play, the more averages will even out and you will be able to determine more accurately how much you are winning because of your skill and how much you are winning because you went through a lucky patch.

The reverse is harder to determine, because we often put down losses to bad luck rather than bad play. For example, you are holding AJ on the button and raise three times the big blind. The player on the small blind re-raises you. He has been a real nit all night, but you have just lost a big pot when your bullets were cracked by JJ after another fish hook fell on the river and gave your opponent trips. You are eager to get your money back and shove all-in. Your opponent calls and flips over KK. The cowboys hold up until the river and you bemoan the fact that Lady Luck couldn't give you an ace "just one time" The truth is, if you had stopped to think, you would have realized that the nit was unlikely to have anything less than kings and you only had one live card at best.

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